What would congressional reapportionment look like if it were based on this year’s population estimates?This table
shows the numbers. You can see what the congressional apportionment would be based on current population estimates and then based on projections of what the population will be in 2010. The table and analysis are done by Election Data Services
, a D.C. based consulting firm that specializes in redistricting.
The numbers are interesting: Based on the 2006 estimates, Utah would gain a fourth seat and do so at seat number 411 (based on a total of 435 apportioned). In other words, there would still be 24 seats left to dole out after Utah received seat number four.
Our staff points out that the EDS reports over the last several years make an interesting trend: In 2000, of course, Utah was bureaucratized out of a fourth seat and was next in line at (nonexistent) seat number 436. But the 2001 estimates showed Utah receiving the fourth seat at seat number 435, in 2002 at seat number 432, in 2003 at seat number 428, in 2005 at seat number 417, and now in 2006 at seat number 411 (we couldn't find 04 numbers). Utah's population growth since 2000 has significantly solidified its position to receive the fourth seat.
Another question that comes up occasionally is if Utah might be in line for two seats after the 2010 census. The numbers tells the story, and the answer is no. EDS numbers also project when the next seat for each state would be given -- in other words, how many seats would there have to be in Congress for an additional seat for each state. Based on 06 estimates, Utah's fifth seat wouldn't happen until seat number 524; 89 seats beyond the actual 435.Bottom line
: Utah's fourth seat looks solid after the 2010 census, but a fifth seat is not in the cards this time around.